Kemi Badenoch's missteps are a 'total disaster' say Tory insiders

Badenoch’s defenders argue that she is steering the party in a new direction, away from traditional party politics and towards a more impactful form of governance.

“She’s like no other leader we’ve had,” says a close ally. “She’s not about the short-term game. She’s about really making a difference to people’s lives and that means getting policies right. She’s not afraid to do the hard yards.”

And for now, most of her MPs agree. Nobody yet predicts Badenoch’s early departure and few are seriously plotting against her.

But the consequences of underestimating Reform are huge. The party’s rapid rise is reminiscent of UKIP under Nigel Farage. Farage rallied against both main parties to such an extent that he turned UKIP, for a time, into a credible electoral force.

However, the vast majority of MPs we have spoken to are yet to be convinced that Reform are anything more than a passing protest vote for those disaffected with the two main parties.

Nevertheless, the reality of the situation for Badenoch is stark. The Conservatives gained 652 councillors at local elections the early days of May. But in the end, this looked like more of a last hurrah. They ended up with a net gain of 129 councillors – small fry compared to the gains Labour made under Ed Miliband or Hague.

Badenoch needs to come up with a convincing, clear and coherent alternative that can, for once, start to chip away at Reform’s allure.

“She has to show she can turn it around,” says one senior Conservative backbencher. “We all used to say the only way isn’t up. But maybe she’s proving us wrong. It can go the other way too.”