Why Reform was the other big winner in the Hamilton by-election

In a surprising turn of events, the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election saw Labour emerge victorious, providing the party with a much-needed morale boost less than a year before the full Scottish Parliament election. However, the real standout of the election was Reform UK, coming in third behind the SNP and achieving their best parliamentary election result in Scotland with a 26% share of the vote. Richard Tice, the party’s deputy leader, expressed the outcome as a significant step forward leading up to the May 2026 vote.

The defeat in this by-election highlights the declining vote share for both the SNP and Labour, with the SNP facing severe consequences for their last 18 years in power at Holyrood. Despite the SNP framing the contest as a two-horse race between them and Reform UK, Labour’s narrow victory underscores that it was, in fact, a three-horse race all along. This outcome raises crucial questions for the SNP about their strategic approach heading into the upcoming elections.

The impact of this by-election is felt across the political spectrum, with the Conservatives suffering a significant setback by finishing fourth and struggling to combat the rise of Reform UK. The defeat represents a challenge for Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay and signals trouble for Kemi Badenoch and the UK party. While Labour saw success in this localised win, it is not a victory that Sir Keir Starmer can entirely attribute to his leadership, especially with his declining popularity in Scotland since last summer.

Acknowledging the public discontent with the UK Labour government, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar emphasized the need for Sir Keir Starmer to accelerate the delivery of economic change promised during the general election. The narrative in Scottish politics shifts following this by-election outcome, challenging established trends and underscoring the need for parties to address voter frustrations. As Scotland gears up for the upcoming elections, this win for Labour serves as a reminder to all parties that nothing should be taken for granted, with Reform UK emerging as a potentially significant force in Scottish politics for the first time

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