Criticism of complacency on defence spending will sting government

Lord George Robertson’s recent remarks warning of a “corrosive complacency” within the UK’s defence sector are likely to cause discomfort within the current government. Robertson, who previously served as defence secretary and was personally selected by Labour to lead its Strategic Defence Review (SDR), highlighted significant weaknesses in the British armed forces. These deficiencies were acknowledged by government officials and were supposed to be addressed in a long-awaited defence investment strategy.

Complications have arisen as the Ministry of Defence reportedly faces a £28 billion shortfall in funding over the next four years. Last month, General Sir Richard Barrons, another original contributor to the SDR, painted a grim picture of the army’s capabilities, suggesting it is too depleted to undertake “anything substantial” and could at best “seize a small market town on a good day.” Along with reduced troop numbers, much of the military’s ageing equipment is also reported to be in a state of decline.

Despite promises from Labour upon taking office to rebuild the armed forces, progress has been slow and remains insufficient, leaving the military in a fragile state. The government plans to increase defence spending to 2.5% of national income next year, a commitment initially viewed as adequate for this parliamentary term. However, shifting global conditions have made the pledge less concrete, with a broader target now set to reach 3.5% of GDP in defence spending by 2035 in line with new NATO guidelines.

This renewed investment comes after a prolonged period of decline, during which defence budgets fell by 22% between 2009 and 2017 before only recently climbing back to 2010 levels. Many defence experts argue that this boost in spending is overdue. The UK, once the fourth-largest defender spender within NATO in 2020, has slipped down to 14th place as many other allied countries accelerated their expenditures. While several reviews and reorganisations have been undertaken, tangible results remain scarce. The situation is especially pressing given increased threats from countries such as Russia, Iran, and China, alongside mounting strain in the transatlantic relationship brought to a head by diplomatic tensions. If reliance on the US military’s strength weakens, the UK will need to significantly enhance its own defence capabilities

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