Billions of meals at risk due to Iran war, says fertiliser boss

The ongoing conflict in the Gulf region, particularly the disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, is triggering severe consequences for global food production, warns Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, one of the world’s largest fertiliser manufacturers. The blockade and hostilities in this vital shipping lane have led to a significant shortage of fertilisers and their key components, threatening the availability of crucial nutrients needed for crop growth. Holsether emphasizes that this shortage may translate into a reduction of up to ten billion meals per week worldwide, with the most vulnerable populations in poorer countries facing the greatest risks.

Holsether points out that currently about half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser is not being produced, directly affecting global agricultural output. Nitrogen fertilisers are essential in maintaining crop yields, and without them, production for some crops could plummet by as much as 50% in the coming planting season. The immediate impact on food prices may not be apparent in all regions right away. Analysts suggest that in parts of Asia, the consequences will become visible only towards the end of the year, as harvests expected from spring planting suffer serious shortfalls or fail completely.

Farmers worldwide are contending with a difficult situation as well, Holsether explains, noting that the higher costs they face for energy, fuel, and fertilisers have not yet been matched by an increase in crop prices. This imbalance places additional financial strain on producers who must cover escalating expenses without receiving sufficient compensation from market prices. The risk of a bidding war for food is rising if the conflict continues, with wealthier regions such as Europe potentially outbidding poorer nations for scarce food resources. Holsether urges European countries to be mindful of who bears the burden in such scenarios, highlighting the intensified hardships that vulnerable populations in developing countries could face.

The United Nations estimates that approximately one-third of the world’s fertilisers, including substances like urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates, normally transit through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the global scale of the disruption. Following the escalation of the conflict involving the US and Israel against Iran, fertiliser prices have surged by 80%. This spike further drives up food production costs and contributes to growing food insecurity, especially in regions such as Asia and the Pacific, where food insecurity is projected to increase by 24%. In the UK, food inflation is anticipated to reach as high as 10% by December, according to recent forecasts, reflecting the widespread impact on consumers

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