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July is shaping up to be one of the warmest months on record across much of the United Kingdom. Preliminary data from the Met Office, covering up to the 30th of July, indicates that Wales is likely to experience its warmest July in terms of mean temperature, a figure representing the average temperature over each 24-hour period.
England is expected to tie its record for the highest mean temperature in July, while Northern Ireland appears set to record its third warmest July by the same measure. In contrast, Scotland is not anticipated to rank within its top ten warmest Julys based on average temperatures.
Although the highest temperatures recorded in July have not broken any all-time records—this year’s peak being 35.5°C at Wisley in Surrey on July 9th, well below the 40.3°C July record reached last year in Coningsby, Lincolnshire—mean temperatures remain notably elevated. Southern England, in particular, has seen average temperatures approximately 3.2°C above the norm.
The UK Health Security Agency has issued an early estimate suggesting that England may witness the greatest number of heat-related fatalities since records began. Preliminary figures indicate around 2,877 deaths linked to heat exposure during the May and June heatwaves, which nearly doubles the count for the entire previous year. So far this year, the UK has already experienced seven days with temperatures exceeding 35°C, surpassing the previous record of five days set in 1976 and matched in 2020. Additionally, 31 days with temperatures above 30°C have been recorded, coming close to the 34-day record from 1995 and significantly exceeding the 24 days noted in 1976
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