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The forthcoming leadership of the Scottish Labour Party will be decided this weekend, with the contest narrowing down to two MSPs: Michael Marra and Joe Fagan. They face the daunting task of steering a party that suffered its worst-ever outcome in May’s Scottish Parliament election. With just 17 MSPs, Scottish Labour now ranks as the joint second-largest party at Holyrood, tied with Reform UK. Despite this, there remains a significant divide between Labour and the dominant SNP.
Anas Sarwar, the outgoing leader, failed to achieve his ambition of becoming First Minister and soon after shifted his focus to the House of Lords. During the leadership election, it was revealed that the party’s membership had dwindled to around 11,000, underscoring the precarious situation Scottish Labour currently finds itself in. The next leader will have to contend with rebuilding relevance, improving public recognition of the party and its figures, and crafting policies that resonate with voters.
Mark Diffley, a pollster, highlighted that Scottish Labour has become somewhat irrelevant in the political landscape. He pointed out that most people are unfamiliar with both candidates and are often unaware that the leadership election is taking place. Diffley advises that the new leader must strive to raise the party’s profile, forge a productive relationship with the UK Prime Minister—who currently enjoys popularity in Scotland—and articulate compelling policy proposals. Achieving these priorities will not be straightforward, as acknowledged by insiders who suggest Labour might benefit from emulating the Scottish Greens’ strategy. Rather than outright opposition, Labour could consider supporting SNP initiatives on certain issues, such as increasing public control over buses or advocating for better wages for care workers, thus securing tangible achievements to present at future elections.
Another widely held view within the party is that the traditional constant criticism of the SNP has not been effective and should be reconsidered. Instead, Scottish Labour should be more judicious in selecting battles and approach policies such as the reduction of health boards in a constructive manner. Moreover, concerns remain about the UK Prime Minister’s engagement with Scotland, with some party members suggesting there have been insufficient visits and inconsistent messaging around the possibility of a second independence referendum. This constitutional question is likely to be a challenging issue for the new leader, especially as both Marra and Fagan have struggled at times to clearly articulate Labour’s position on a potential second vote. Despite internal challenges, the leadership contest has not been marked by major factional disputes, and it is expected that the losing candidate will cooperate with the winner in the future.
Ultimately, whoever wins the leadership race will be tasked with the formidable challenge of reversing a long-term decline and restoring Scottish Labour’s standing in Holyrood. While the road ahead is difficult, rebuilding the party’s influence and appeal is not an impossible endeavor—though starting from such a low point will require significant effort and strategic direction
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