UK weather: Is a September heatwave on the way?

Temperatures across the UK are expected to rise this weekend, bringing summer-like warmth to several regions. Although the conditions will feel warm and humid—especially in areas experiencing sunshine—there will also be episodes of heavy rain amid the mixed weather pattern. This warmth is predicted to continue into Monday in many parts of the country. However, no locations are anticipated to meet the criteria for a heatwave, with cooler weather anticipated to return by the middle of the week.

Rain showers are forecast to move southward throughout Saturday. While Scotland and Northern Ireland will see clearing skies, rain will persist into the afternoon across northern England, Wales, and the Midlands. Some of these showers could be intense, accompanied by thunder and lightning, as well as brisk south-westerly winds. Meanwhile, southern England is expected to remain largely dry with sunny intervals, where temperatures may reach the mid-20s Celsius, several degrees above the usual September averages.

On Sunday, the rain in southern England may linger into the morning but is likely to clear by the afternoon, leading to dry conditions and sunshine across much of the UK. Temperatures might dip slightly in northern regions, while parts of Wales, the Midlands, and southern England could experience highs between 23 and 25 degrees Celsius. Monday could bring even warmer weather, with highs ranging from 22 to 26 degrees in much of England and Wales and around 20 degrees in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Despite this warmth, these values still fall short of heatwave thresholds, which require temperatures exceeding 25 degrees in Scotland and Northern Ireland and above 28 degrees in the London area for three consecutive days.

Long-range forecasts indicate that unsettled weather is likely to persist over the coming week or so, with the jet stream directing areas of low pressure across the UK. This will bring spells of rain and potentially blustery winds. Such wet conditions will provide relief to the many parts of England and Wales currently struggling with drought. Later in September, high-pressure systems may gain more influence, leading to longer dry periods and the possibility of above-average daytime temperatures. Nonetheless, as autumn progresses and nights lengthen, clear skies under high pressure could also result in chilly mornings. At present, there is no clear evidence pointing to a heatwave in the forecast

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